Subjects: Biology >> Botany >> Applied botany submitted time 2022-08-05 Cooperative journals: 《广西植物》
Abstract： Excentrodendron tonkinensis is a constructive species of karst seasonal rainforest and an obligate karst plant, which is also one of the national secondary key protected wild plant and an IUCN endangered plant, with high economic and ecological value. However, there is still a lack of understanding of how the potential suitable areas of Excentrodendron tonkinensis change in the context of global change and its key driving factors, which affect the scientific protection and utilization of Excentrodendron tonkinensis.To assess the impacts of climate change on the extents of the habitat of Excentrodendron tonkinensis, we used the Maximum-entropy model to analyze the potential changes in the geographical distribution in China of future climate scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), and tested the influence of the karst geological background distribution on predicting the suitable areas of karst obligate plants. The results show that: (1) in the case of adding karst geological background data, the average AUC of the prediction model for the suitable area is 0.997, which has a good prediction effect. And the model prediction results are strictly limited to the karst region, consistent with the characteristics of Excentrodendron tonkinensis which is karst obligate plant; (2) According to the fitting results of the model, the karst geological background, precipitation of warmest quarter(800-950 mm), and the min temperature of coldest month(7-11 ℃) are the key factors limiting the distribution of Excentrodendron tonkinensis; (3) with the increase of temperature in the future, the area of potential suitable areas for Excentrodendron tonkinensis would expand to higher latitudes karst areas. Large numbers of areas of stable habitats exist in parts of southwest Guangxi and southeastern Yunnan. These results suggest that the karst geological distribution is essential as predicting the potential geographic distribution of karst obligate plants such as Excentrodendron tonkinensis; if the temperature continues to rise in the future, its potential suitable areas will expand to high latitudes, and the degree of endangerment may be affected by climate, which means it is not obvious under the influence of climate changes; parts of southwestern Guangxi and southeastern Yunnan are suitable areas for the conservation and utilization of Excentrodendron tonkinensis under the climate changes in the future.
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