基于MaxEnt 模型预测中国兰属植物的分布格局及主导气候因子

• 作者： 郑芳 ^1,2 黄智聪 ^1,2 陈利君 ^1,2 王蒙 ^1,2 严岳鸿 ^1,2 陈建兵 ^1,2*
• 作者单位：
  1.  兰科植物保护与利用国家林业和草原局重点实验室，广东深圳518114

  2.  深圳市兰科植物保护研究中心，广东深圳518114）
• 提交时间：2023-06-05

摘要: 兰属（Cymbidium）所有种（除兔耳兰C. lancifolium 外）均被列为国家重点保护野 生植物，研究其在未来气候条件下的潜在分布格局，将对该类群的有效合理保护提供参考和 依据。该文基于兰属植物已知的分布点和19 个气候因子，利用MaxEnt 模型和地理信息系 统（ArcGIS）模拟兰属以及其中20 种兰属植物在九种不同气候情景（当代以及未来2030s、 2050s、2070s 和2090s 四个时间段各两种温室气体排放情景）下的潜在分布格局，并找出影 响兰属植物分布的主导气候因子。结果表明：（1）最干旱季降水量（Bio17）、年降水量（Bio12） 和温度季节性变化（Bio04）是影响兰属植物地理分布格局的主导气候因子。（2）从物种水 平上分析，不同兰属植物在未来情景下的适生区表现出不同的变化趋势，且影响其分布的主 导气候因子也有所不同。其中，冬凤兰（C. dayanum）等8 个物种的适生区面积总体呈扩张 趋势，而西藏虎头兰（C. tracyanum）等12 个物种的适生区面积整体则呈缩减趋势。该研究 将为兰属植物就地保护与迁地保护提供重要参考，对兰属等濒危野生植物的保护具有积极意 义。

Abstract: Except for Cymbidium lancifolium, all the Cymbidium species have been listed as national key protected wild plants, and the research of its future distribution patterns under the future climate would provide a reference and basis to protect this genus effectively. This paper gathered the distribution information of Cymbidium and 19 climatic factors, and used the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) and Geographic Information System (ArcGIS) to predict the future distribution patterns of the Cymbidium in China and its 20 species. The future distribution patterns were predicted under nine different climate scenarios, including the current climate and eight future climate scenarios. We also analyzed the dominant climate factors affecting the distribution. The results were as follows: (1) The precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17), annual precipitation (Bio12) and temperature seasonality (Bio04) are the dominant climate factors affecting the future distribution of Cymbidium. (2) The analysis of species-level shows that the suitable areas of different Cymbidium species have different change trends in the future scenario, and the dominant climate factors affecting them are also different. The suitable habitat area of eight Cymbidium species such as C. dayanum trends gradually increases, while the suitable habitat area of 12 Cymbidium species such as C. tracyanum decreases. In conclusion, this study can provide an important reference for in-situ and ex-situ conservation of Cymbidium, and has positive significance to the protection of Cymbidium and other endangered wild plants.

• 分类： 生物学 >> 植物学 >> 应用植物学
• 引用： ChinaXiv:202306.00040 (或此版本 ChinaXiv:202306.00040V1)
  doi:10.12074/202306.00040
  CSTR:32003.36.ChinaXiv.202306.00040.V1
• 推荐引用方式： 郑芳,黄智聪,陈利君,王蒙,严岳鸿,陈建兵.(2023).基于MaxEnt 模型预测中国兰属植物的分布格局及主导气候因子.广西植物.[ChinaXiv:202306.00040] (点此复制)